Here are the results of basic forecasts of economic indicators for Eastern Poland Macroregion in 2020. First of all, attention was focused on assessing the macroeconomic impact of the Operational Programme Development of Eastern Polish (OP DEP) for the years 2007-2013 on the economic system of macroregion. It will receive 2 161,1 mln euro from the ERDF within the OP DEP.
Previous tendency and forecast of basic socio-economic indicators for Eastern Poland
Analysing the GDP growth rate in 1998-2002 we could not clearly identified provinces of Eastern Poland, which have evolved dynamically than other regions of the country. Analyses indicate that the slowest level of GDP of all the surveyed regions will grow in the province of Lublin, in turn, dynamic changes in 1998-2003 were more pronounced in provinces of Eastern Poland than in the country.
Amplitude changes in the annual rate of increase in the number of people employed in recent years were higher in Eastern Poland than in other parts of the country. This is particularly clearly visible in the Warmia and Mazury. The number of jobs in this province has increased by over 9% in 2001, while in 2002 fell by almost 14%. The largest rate of employment growth in the years 2006-2020 will be initially in the Lublin Province, and from 2011 in the Warmia and Mazury. Świętokrzyskie represents the lowest rate of employment growth.
The development of technical advanced industries
A lot of investments in innovative activities in one year (when we convert into one employee) made Świętokrzyskie in 2002-2004. This is four times more than in the Podlaskie Province and 60 percent more than in the country. However, this situation was not so optimistic in the next few years. In 2003 and 2004 in all five provinces, the expenditure on innovative activities, (calculated per employee) was lower than in other regions of the country. We can distinguish Podkarpackie where expenditures per employee were the largest among the other regions of Eastern Poland.
The fastest growth rate of gross value added was observed in manufacturing, in Podlaskie Province. In this province, and also in Podkarpackie gross value added would grow faster by 1-2 percentage points than in the country. However, in the region of Lublin and Warmia-Mazury manufacturing sector would develop at a rate of about 6 percent, and it would be slower than the national average. The growth rate of gross value added in market services was in Podlaskie, in 1998-2003, the highest of the five regions of Eastern Poland. Only in this province considered sector would develop rapidly by 2013, than in Poland. A different situation is in the Lublin province, where the annual increase in GVA in market services in the years 2006-2020 will be about 1.5 percentage points lower than in Podlasie and Podkarpackie. The percentage share of the market services sector in gross value added would decrease, whereas the share of manufacturing would increase. The decrease in the market services sector in the production in the eastern part of the country, in the years 2007-2020, would be around 2 percentage points, while the share of manufacturing sector in gross value added generated in the same period have increased by about 15 percentage points. Among regions of Eastern Poland the smallest part in the production of market services sector is in Podkarpackie, and the largest in Lublin (2007-2020). The opposite situation is in the manufacturing sector, where the largest share of thegross value is generated in Podkarpackie, while the smallest in Lublin.
External and internal migration
The analyzes show that more and more people are leaving Eastern Poland’s regions and go to the other regions, and abroad. The highest net migration rate could be observed in the Lublin Province, while the lowest in the province of Podlasie. Podkarpackie excels in the greatest mobility of the population in relation to the population within a particular region. In other regions of the Eastern Poland population’s mobility within a particular region is less than the national average.
In Eastern Poland, unfortunately we can observe a lower percentage of the population with higher education than in other regions of the country. The lowest percentage of population with higher education was in Warmia-Mazury, and amounted to 6.9%, while the highest was in Lublin Province, and amounted to 7.9%, in result was lower than the national average. In Lublin there is the highest number of students, while the smallest is in Podkarpackie. Projections suggest that the lowest number of students will be in the province of Podlasie by the end of 2013. We should distinguish Lublin Province here, where the ratio of students in relation to the population aged 20-24 will be similar to the national average. Since 1999 – 2003 we observed dynamic growth in the number of students in the provinces of Eastern Poland. Studies show that the share of technical students in the total number of students is decreasing, both in Eastern Poland and also in other parts of the country.
The lowest unemployment rate in Eastern Poland was observed in the Warmia-Mazury, and it amounted to 27.3%. For comparison, in the provinces of Lublin and Podlasie was little more than 16% in 2002. Projections suggest that in the years 2007-2020 in Eastern Poland the unemployment rate will decrease, but slower than in other regions of the country.
Inflows in Foreign Direct Investment
Unfortunately, Eastern Poland can not boast of too many significant foreign investments. Analyses show that in these provinces have less foreign capital in companies per employee than the national average. A good example of this phenomenon is the Podlasie region, where in 2004 the capital was over 15 times less than the average nationwide. The noteworthy are Świętokrzyskie and Podkarpackie, there are many companies with foreign capital.
When it comes to the number of foreign tourists using the accommodation an important distinction deserves Warmia and Mazury. Influence is undoubtedly growing popularity of this region among tourists from western Europe. Other regions of Eastern Poland seem to be less favorable. Foreign tourists visit Podkarpackie the least. Poland’s accession to the European Union and restriction on movement orders, reduced the number of foreign tourists from east.
Effect of DEP OP on basic socio-economic indicators
Analysis shows that the OP impact on GDP will keep getting bigger by 2013. In 2013, the impact of EPD OP will be at more than one percent. In the next few years we will see a slow decline, but even after the end of the DEP OP in 2015, it will be about 0.6 percent in subsequent years. When it comes to employment in the Eastern Poland, there is an increase in employment in relation to the baseline scenario, which will create about 0.2-0.5 percent of additional jobs. In the years 2011 – 2012 we will see a slow decline, and in 2013 re-growth. On the other hand, after 2013 there will be a dramatic downturn untill 2016, which decrease the number of employed people, differently than in the baseline scenario. A particularly noteworthy is the Province of Warmia and Mazury, where the impact of EPD OP on changing the number of employed people will be the highest. Whereas the lowest impact will be seen in the Lublin area.
Effect of DEP OP on gross value added in manufacturing oscillates from 1.5 percent in Podkarpackie, to 2.5 percent in the Warmia and Mazury (in 2013-2015). In comparison to the market services sector allocated funds in 2007-2015 will have a positive impact on the volume of production in manufacturing, even after the end of the DEP OP and in 2020 it will still ranged from 1 to 2 percent more than in the baseline scenario. In turn, the market services sector, the impact of the DEP OP on the production volume is noticeable only during the implementation. After 2015 it will be less than 0.2 percent. Effects of DEP OP on the production of market services in the particular region will be proportional to the level of the gross production volume in the period 2007-2015. The funds allocated under EPD OP for supporting enterprises will cause greater and long-term macroeconomic effects in manufacturing. In all provinces supported by the EPD OP we will see increase in the manufacturing sector’s share in gross value added compared to the baseline scenario. The greatest difference can be seen in 2016 and will be amounted to 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively Podkarpackie and Warmia-Mazury. This means a relative decrease in the percentage of other sectors, including market services. Initially, DEP OP will contribute to the increased share of market services in total production. However, funds allocated under EPD OP since 2013 will cause a greater decline in the share of market services sector in gross value added in all the regions of Eastern Poland than is seen in the baseline scenario. In 2016 this fall will be the biggest and will range from 0.2 to 0.35 percentage points. When it comes to the unemployment rate through the influence of DEP OP it will be decreased in the period 2007-2015. But after 2015 it will be higher than in the situation if there was no DEP OP in 2007-2015, and it will be largely due to a general increase in productivity. This result indicates the beginning of regression, which may take place after the end of funding under the DEP OP, but we should remember about a number of other already signaled before positive effects that are likely to be able to reverse this situation. As a result of the financial allocation under EPD OP 2007-2015 detachment in development, which divides the provinces of Eastern Poland from the rest of the country, will be increasing to a lesser extent than if it was not by the DEP OP.
Based on: “Forecast of basic socio-economic indicators for Eastern Poland” by P. Tomaszewski, M. Zembaty.